We propose an algorithm for change point monitoring in linear causal models that accounts for interventions. Through a special centralization technique, we can concentrate the changes arising from causal propagation across nodes into a single dimension. Additionally, by selecting appropriate intervention nodes based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, we can amplify the change magnitude. We also present an algorithm for selecting the intervention values, which aids in the identification of the most effective intervention nodes. Two monitoring methods are proposed, each with an adaptive intervention policy to make a balance between exploration and exploitation. We theoretically demonstrate the first-order optimality of the proposed methods and validate their properties using simulation datasets and two real-world case studies.

Causal discovery is the challenging task of inferring causal structure from data. Motivated by Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (PCH), which tells us that passive observations alone are not enough to distinguish correlation from causation, there has been a recent push to incorporate interventions into machine learning research. Reinforcement learning provides a convenient framework for such an active approach to learning. This paper presents CORE, a deep reinforcement learning-based approach for causal discovery and intervention planning. CORE learns to sequentially reconstruct causal graphs from data while learning to perform informative interventions. Our results demonstrate that CORE generalizes to unseen graphs and efficiently uncovers causal structures. Furthermore, CORE scales to larger graphs with up to 10 variables and outperforms existing approaches in structure estimation accuracy and sample efficiency. All relevant code and supplementary material can be found at https://github.com/sa-and/CORE

Behavioral health interventions, delivered through digital platforms, have the potential to significantly improve health outcomes, through education, motivation, reminders, and outreach. We study the problem of optimizing personalized interventions for patients to maximize a long-term outcome, where interventions are costly and capacity-constrained. We assume there exists a dataset collected from an initial pilot study that we can leverage. We present a new approach for this problem that we dub DecompPI, which approximates one step of policy iteration. Implementing DecompPI simply consists of a prediction task using the dataset, alleviating the need for online experimentation. DecompPI is a generic model-free algorithm that can be used irrespective of the underlying patient behavior model. We derive theoretical guarantees on a simple, special case of the model that is representative of our problem setting. We establish an approximation ratio for DecompPI with respect to the improvement beyond a null policy that does not allocate interventions. Specifically, when the initial policy used to collect the data is randomized, the approximation ratio of the improvement approaches 1/2 as the intervention capacity of the initial policy decreases. We show that this guarantee is robust to estimation errors. We conduct a rigorous empirical case study using real-world data from a mobile health platform for improving treatment adherence for tuberculosis. Using a validated simulation model, we demonstrate that DecompPI can provide the same efficacy as the status quo approach with approximately half the capacity of interventions. DecompPI is simple and easy to implement for organizations aiming to improve long-term behavior through targeted interventions, and this paper demonstrates its strong performance both theoretically and empirically.

Advancements in reinforcement learning (RL) have been remarkable in recent years. However, the limitations of traditional training methods have become increasingly evident, particularly in meta-RL settings where agents face new, unseen tasks. Conventional training approaches are susceptible to failure in such situations as they need more robustness to adversity. Our proposed adversarial training regime for Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning (MT-RL) addresses the limitations of conventional training methods in RL, especially in meta-RL environments where the agent faces new tasks. The adversarial component challenges the agent, forcing it to improve its decision-making abilities in dynamic and unpredictable situations. This component operates without relying on manual intervention or domain-specific knowledge, making it a highly versatile solution. Experiments conducted in multiple MT-RL environments demonstrate that adversarial training leads to better exploration and a deeper understanding of the environment. The adversarial training regime for MT-RL presents a new perspective on training and development for RL agents and is a valuable contribution to the field.

The two most commonly used criteria for assessing causal model discovery with artificial data are edit-distance and Kullback-Leibler divergence, measured from the true model to the learned model. Both of these metrics maximally reward the true model. However, we argue that they are both insufficiently discriminating in judging the relative merits of false models. Edit distance, for example, fails to distinguish between strong and weak probabilistic dependencies. KL divergence, on the other hand, rewards equally all statistically equivalent models, regardless of their different causal claims. We propose an augmented KL divergence, which we call Causal KL (CKL), which takes into account causal relationships which distinguish between observationally equivalent models. Results are presented for three variants of CKL, showing that Causal KL works well in practice.